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Sunday 14 November 2004

Took a couple weeks off of blogging after the election to collect my thoughts and reorient myself. Not so much with the blog, but with things in general. Those of you who read this, and work with me know work has been especially hectic the past few weeks. Plus I’ll be getting a year older in about 2 weeks so that brings on some different thoughts and feelings. Lots of fun stuff to think about.

Its a few weeks late, but here is my post election analysis. Phew… wow there is still hope for America. My “just for fun” electoral map aside, I thought the election would be close… real close. To be honest I didn’t think we would know who the president was for at least a week. I thought Ohio, and Florida would be counted and recounted. I was wrong. Not only was Florida not recounted, Bush won quite handily. Ohio was closer, but not close enough for Kerry to mount a serious lawyer attack.

On that note, I would like to commend John Kerry for bowing out gracefully. To his credit he knew he didn’t have a shot in Ohio, and knew lawsuits would only divide the country further. I think he also knew he wasn’t in as good of a place as Gore was in 2000. Bush had over 3 million more popular votes than Kerry. The American people had spoken. Unfortunately for John Kerry, his best speech of the campaign was his last speech. It was the first time I watched him and believed what he was saying. He no longer had to try to be everything to every voter. He could speak as himself. Maybe if he had done that the whole time the outcome would have been different. But I doubt it… and I’ll tell you why.

There has been a lot of talk about the people of America fearing for the social direction of the country and voting based on values. I think this is true to a certain extent, but not in the way the media has been describing it. Take a look at this great article by Charles Krauthammer. He brings up some very valid points. However, I wouldn’t go as far as he did. I do think values played a role in the election. But I don’t think it means we are a country of Bible thumping, racist, sexist, homophobes the mainstream media, Hollywood, and intellectual elite are trying to make us out to be.

First, lets consider a few facts. Bush increased his number of votes since 2000. 11% of blacks, and 44% of Hispanics voted for Bush, both up from 2000. 25% of Jews voted for Bush, up from 2000. It should also be noted that 57% of married people voted for Bush, and if those couples had kids, that percentage rose to 59%. (See all exit polls here).

What’s all that mean? Its means Bush was increasing his votes in several places. It means that there is a lot of people out there who are starting to see that the Democratic Party is representing the far left of society. And this is a portion of society many normal Americans do not feel comfortable with. Lets take a few examples.

Normal, non-church going people can be concerned with the explicit content and material coming from Hollywood. They fear for the mental development of their children. Hollywood stars have not only brushed the issue of vulgarity in entertainment aside, but also mocked and ridiculed those with those concerns. When the same stars overwhelmingly get behind Democrats, and then the Democratic presidential nominee says the stars are the “heart and soul” of America, normal Americans who don’t like the direction of Hollywood turn to those who will listen to their concerns.

Normal, non-church going people can accept the homosexual lifestyle, but feel a millennia old tradition should not be changed because the issue of marriage sprang up recently. They can also be compassionate toward homosexuals and feel that such a major change to an important societal institution should be decided by a vote of the people, and not by a panel of judges, and therefore support a constitutional amendment. They can do that without hating homosexuals.

A normal American can respect all the countries of the world, desire that they approve of the United States, yet understand that the U.S. has enemies, and therefore we shouldn’t have to depend of “world opinion” to defend our self, nor that we should have to pass a “global test.”

The list goes on and on. I would encourage people to read these articles, as they explain what is going on in America in more depth, and with some different points of view. After them we will discuss, what to do next.

Believe it or not, it wasn't just rednecks who voted for Bush(The Daily Telegraph, UK)
Why Democrats are tagged as the party without values(World Net Daily)
The End of the Sixties(The Weekly Standard)
Values and Bush's victory(Union Tribune, San Diego, CA)
Faith in democracy, not government(VictorHanson.com)
Bad News for Democrats Hollywood activists vow to keep it up(Wall Street Journal)
Note to the Democrats from a values voter(Denver Post)
It's Democrats who can do better(Seattle Post-Intelligencer)

So, here is the real question. Where do we go from here? It seems conservatives have spoken. Seems is the operative word. It is possible that people who are not normally involved in the political process got involved this time. They got the more conservative candidate elected. Do they really want change in the United States, or was this just a one-time thing?

Do we all fold up our political tents and wait for things to get serious again, or do we stay involved and fight for what we believe in now, so it doesn’t get so serious again? Think about this article. It’s a bit over the top, understating some of the party differences. I can say that based on everything I have written above. However, it brings up some great points. Another great article is this one by Joseph Farah that I highly recommend!

Before we get to the somewhat serious stuff I have to announce the first snow in the Denver Metro Area. Hooray! One of the many great things about living in Colorado. We actually have seasons!!

Well, tomorrow is the big day. Perhaps the most important Presidential election in the last century. I’m going to guess most people have made up their minds so it’s time for some prognostication.

It’s in no way scientific. I’ve been following several different polls, and election websites over the past few months. Websites like Real Clear Politics, Election Projection, RedState, Survey USA, and Mason-Dixon have provided various polls, maps, posts, and articles on the election. So in making my prediction I'm taking into account all of what I’ve read over the past few months and throwing in a little bit of gut feeling for good measure.

With out further adieu here is Running with Scissors 2004 predicted electoral map (created with Equinox Election Calculator)

George W. Bush – 300 John Kerry – 238

Most of it is pretty standard with the south and mid-west going mostly to Bush, with the west coast and northeast going to Kerry. However, there are a few states that are too close to call as of Sunday night. Well, maybe others are too afraid to predict them, but I’m not. Besides, it’s just for fun. No harm, no foul.

My biggest leap is Hawaii. You will notice I have it going to Bush. A little surprised? Well you should be. Hawaii has gone Democrat in every election since 1960 with the exception of ’72 (Nixon) and ’84 (Reagan). This is pure gut feeling. As of Sunday night the Real Clear Politics average shows Bush +.9%. Not much, but still very close considering Hawaii’s political history. In my mind there must be something up in the islands. What ever is happening out there in the Pacific has allowed Bush to stay close in a Democrat stronghold in what is perceived to be a very close election. My gut tells me this will play itself out tomorrow and Hawaii will turn red.

Along the lines of Hawaii is Minnesota. Also a long time Democratic stronghold, going Republican only one time since 1960. That being Nixon in ’72. I think something is up in Minnesota also. Mason-Dixon, the most consistent polling organization, has Bush +1 in their most recent poll. It seems the people of Minnesota are starting to move to the right. Why would such a staunchly Democrat state be so close in a perceived close election if there wasn’t some underlying change at hand? The Star Tribune in Minneapolis-St. Paul is one of the most liberal papers in the country. The good folks of Minnesota are starting to hold their feet to the fire. In my opinion they are starting to go the way of Georgia’s Zell Miller. Traditional Democrats in the mold of JFK, who are realizing like Miller did that the Democratic Party has left him. We’ll see if Minnesota feels the Democrat’s sharp left turn is as dangerous as Zell Miller did. I suspect they will, going Republican for the first time since 1972. Plus, Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Tice is a Bush guy. (click the link & scroll down.) That’s got to count for something up there… right?

Then there is Wisconsin. To me is seems like this would be a Bush state. Hardworking, blue-collar folk. Those are the ones who understand Bush the best. Plus Kerry made the amazing blunder of calling legendary home of the Green Bay Packers Lambeau Field, Lambert Field. Nice work there Kerry. Anything to fit in, eh big guy. I wouldn’t think the cheese heads would let that one slide but Mason-Dixon has Kerry +2 in the latest poll.

Then there is Ohio and Florida. These have been two of the most talked about of the battleground states. I think they both go Bush’s way. In the case of Florida, Mason-Dixon has Bush +4 in the latest poll. Besides, in 2000 after all the hubbub it still went to Bush. That was after the media prematurely called Florida for Gore and thousands of people living in the conservative Florida panhandle, which is in a different time zone than the rest of Florida, went home thinking their vote was meaningless.

I think Ohio will go to Bush also. This is more of a gut feeling. Mason-Dixon has Bush +2, but I know Ohio is shaping up to be the Florida of 2004. Ohio just seems to be full of tough, hardworking, football loving, blue-collar type folk. My gut tells me they can’t get behind an ultra-wealthy, elitist from the northeast. Besides, in the U.S. Senate race out of Ohio Survey USA has the Republican Voinovich up 59% to 33% over the Democrat Fingerhut. To me that says something.

Important Links

Dennis Prager

Cox & Forkum

Hugh Hewitt

Real Clear Politics

Red State

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